Search Acumen comments on HMRC’s property transaction data for September 2025

“Markets in freeze: lacklustre Autumn bounce ahead of Budget”

Andrew Lloyd , Managing Director at Search Acumen, says:

“Today’s data shows that homebuyers are continuing to exchange from deals likely arranged in the early part of the year. A steady level of these transactions, up slightly from the usual summer lull, represents a broadly stable residential market. But this is just half a story, with a sharp drop in current buyer activity pre-Budget likely to impact transactional data towards the end of the year. Currently, this is a market in freeze. The typical Autumn bounce is likely to remain lacklustre until tax reform is announced and financial impacts can be weighted, with homeowners hoping Budget day does not turn into fright night. 

“In a similar vein, commercial transactions remain unseasonably subdued down 2–3% on last year, reflecting continued caution from investors amid higher financing costs and economic uncertainty. 

“We know prime office demand is stabilising, where secondary office markets are expected to see a decline in value, with a similar pattern happening within industrials. Alternative markets are seeing a growth in transactional trends, particularly in data centers and living sectors. 

“Like in residential, the big driving force in commercial real estate is policy change. Markets crave certainty with investors often taking a hold position until wider confidence returns. The upcoming announcement on business rates will have a significant impact on London markets, whilst policies on rent reviews and planning will determine some key investor decisions.

“With what feels like economic confidence walking on a tight rope until the Budget, it is crucial that the Chancellor outlines reform to stimulate markets, not hold them back. Either way, clarity will be a welcome reprieve after November 26th. 

“For lawyers, conveyancers, and property professionals, administrative inefficiencies and slow processes continue to extend timelines and increase the risk of deal fall-throughs. In nervous markets, deals are more likely to fall out of bed. Now is the time to get ahead, tighten processes, and reduce risk using AI tools. Greater accuracy and efficiency are important cornerstones in turning cautious activity into sustained recovery.”