Search Acumen comments on HMRC’s property transaction data for July 2025:

Andrew Lloyd , Managing Director at Search Acumen, says:

“Speculation is running hot in the residential market over whether new housing taxes at the top end could pull the handbrake on transaction activity. For now, though, buyers are still pressing the accelerator, with bargain-hunters powering through with their summer moves. Commercial Real Estate, however, is idling in neutral. July’s sluggish deal flow hints at more than just a seasonal slowdown. In CRE, uncertainty is the enemy of investment, and right now, investors are caught in the waiting room until the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget sets the tone.

“Still, green shoots are there. Encouragingly, brokers are reporting more multi-lot deals in the pipeline, and as debt costs cool and bid–ask gaps narrow, the gears could start turning again. Prime yields have held steady, and with listed markets consolidating, especially in logistics and alternatives, capital is beginning to rotate back into the UK. Momentum may be creeping back under the surface, even if headline volumes don’t yet reflect it. The levers for a true upswing, though, sit firmly in Government hands. Planning reform, grid connectivity, clarity on MEES, and a coherent approach to property taxes are the growth drivers within reach. Pull them decisively, and the market accelerates; fumble them, and the handbrake stays on. For logistics, data centres, and manufacturing, business rates are the make-or-break factor. Keeping them stable could fuel occupier demand, shore up landlord cash flows, and give investors the yield certainty they crave. Push them higher, and the Government risks stalling capital-intensive projects before they leave the driveway. The Autumn Statement will tell us whether the pendulum swings toward growth or grinds into gridlock.

“Meanwhile, the march toward digitisation is quietly reshaping the market. Faster, cleaner transactions mean fewer fall-throughs and tighter execution, vital features in a climate where debt costs and uncertainty can derail deals at the eleventh hour. In property, speed and precision aren’t luxuries; they’re lifelines.

“Breaking the UK’s ‘cycle of low growth’ won’t happen overnight. But as in residential, where opportunists are already striking, savvy investors in CRE know the best deals are often struck before the crowd wakes up. In markets, you don’t wait for the tide, you catch the turn. Shrewd investors are unlikely to wait, willing to act in the current environment to secure opportunities before prices recalibrate.”