Search Acumen comments on HMRC’s latest property transaction data for September

Andrew Lloyd , Managing Director at Search Acumen, says:

“This dip in property transactions suggests that we might have needed more than a ‘do no harm’ budget. As consumer confidence weakens, we shouldn’t be surprised that residential activity remains depressed, despite some resilience from needs-based buyers. Commercial deals are doing much of the heavy lifting for overall transaction figures, as November’s interest rate decision casts a long shadow.

“A positive amongst a market lacking borrowing firepower is the reinstated ‘Help to Buy’ scheme, Your First Home, poised to help more people on the ladder and increase appetite for flats for struggling housebuilders. However, with big questions left unanswered about developers’ ability to build the houses needed, we’ll have to wait to measure its real-world impact. In the meantime, the need for three-bedroom houses for families remains acute, with new home registrations across the UK falling 13% year-on-year to just over 26,000 in the third quarter.

“Whilst figures for commercial transactions are might not be showing the growth we’d like to see to support our economy, future signs point to this being temporary. As returns in residential markets come under pressure, newly exacerbated by the 4% surcharge on income tax on rental income, money is increasingly being deployed into commercial real estate, boosting activity across industrial, office and alternative sectors, as well as social housing. The longer, wider view investors can take points to confidence in the UK property market’s underlying fundamentals, and a strong base we can build on.

“Some of these building blocks should focus on speeding up transaction timelines and increasing both the quality and quantity of data used to underpin decisions. The UK is moving in the right direction here, with MHCLG’s ongoing consultation on land-use data as one reassuring example.

“But as more decision-making is devolved, maintaining a coherent national framework will be essential to avoid a patchwork of competing systems and policies. Devolution can unlock growth, but only if local priorities complement rather than obstruct national objectives, particularly when it comes to housing and infrastructure.

“Technology should be the glue that holds this together. Better data, forecasting and planning can give investors the confidence to deploy capital more effectively, a trend already visible in more complex portfolio transactions. Over time, a common data-led framework could help deliver faster, smarter decisions across the entire property industry.”