Search Acumen comments on HMRC’s latest property transaction data for June

Andrew Lloyd , Managing Director at Search Acumen, says:

“Today’s results show sales volumes remain resilient rather than spectacular. June typically brings a seasonal bounce, but today’s figures suggest little more than a modest uptick. With transactions taking longer to complete than we’ve seen in decades, the data is effectively a rear-view mirror, reflecting the market sentiment of six to nine months ago rather than today’s conditions.

“We know from other sources like LonRes that transaction rates are highly localised. In prime and prime central London, annual transactions have fallen by 37%, getting closer to the pandemic lows of 2019, where we’re seeing fewer overall transactions causing prices in PCL to erode at record pace. This subdued market is reflected Nationwide’s HPI data released today, seeing flat house price growth and average time in a home without moving stretching to 14 years: 24 years for those owning outright.

“Looking across the wider mainstream markets, the picture is more balanced. HMRC transaction data is now free from the artificial distortions caused by last year’s Stamp Duty deadline, keeping a solid base to suggest a level of market resilience underpinning regional markets. The real test for the second half of 2026 will be how interest rates and therefore mortgages perform for borrowers, as geopolitical conflicts continue to damage inflation. Yesterday’s decision to hold interest rates likely saw many breathe a sigh of relief.  

“The robust nature of our mainstream residential market shouldn’t be downplayed. We saw this during lockdown, and we’re seeing it now, where despite doom-laden headlines, people continue to move home driven by life’s fundamental moments: growing families, changing careers, retirement and relocation. Crucially, the market has matured. The days of double-digit house price growth are largely behind us, and buyers are increasingly viewing property as a place to live rather than a vehicle for quick returns. That shift has created a more stable and sustainable market, underpinned by genuine demand rather than speculation.

“There are some positives in the commercial real estate market, but it is a mixed bag at best with transactions down year-on-year when seasonal estimates are taken into account. Commercial investors can typically afford to be more patient than homebuyers, so may well be waiting for clearer blue skies before pulling the trigger on purchases. What happens over the rest of the summer and into the autumn is difficult to predict, but if we do see growth, it will likely be driven by investment in data centres, defence spending, and drones which seem to have become the commercia equivalent to residential’s death, divorce and debt.

“There is always more that could be done to help ensure growth isn’t fleeting. Banking on boundless resilience isn’t enough. Better use of digital data, upfront verification and predictive modelling could give buyers, sellers and investors far greater confidence early in the process, reducing fall-through rates and shortening transaction timelines. In a market where confidence can be just as important as affordability, those improvements would be significant. The good news is that we’re already seeing AI deliver tangible results in planning, giving a glimpse of what a faster, smarter property market could look like. Technology won’t change the fundamentals of supply and demand, but it can remove much of the friction within the system, helping more transactions reach completion.