Search Acumen comments on HMRC’s property transaction data for February 2026

Andrew Lloyd , Managing Director at Search Acumen, says:

“Today’s decrease in property transaction volumes sets an ominous tone for the market, as dark clouds gather on the horizon. The conflict in the Middle East does not seem to be near resolution and the economic effects are already accelerating, despite not being completely captured in this data.

“Whilst January and February are not typically active times for completions, the decline in volume of residential transactions from the same period last year makes a typical Spring bounce look worlds away, as consumer confidence wanes.

“The US, as a market indicator of what we might expect to see in the coming weeks, shows increasing affordability pressures as mortgage rates there surge to 6.38%, causing overall house sale volumes to fall.

“If we see geopolitical tensions ease and inflation hold, we may see transactions rebound. But as we know, uncertainty is a market killer. What is more likely is that the market volatility we’ve witnessed in recent weeks will become more evident in datasets next month, as deals sit on their hands and buyers wait.

“Commercial property transactions, as a benchmark for market health, will undoubtedly be hit by macro shocks, but shrewd investors will be looking for ‘the bottom’ to deploy their capital carefully and take a long-term view. We’ll also likely see sectors like Tech and Life Sciences ride the storm better than others, driven by unmet need and massive supply constraints. Last week saw the approval of the first £1bn data centre in London, the largest in the city, signalling to markets that opportunities do remain.

“The reality is that overall, things are likely to get worse before they get better, with the coming months set to bring a contraction of the market compared to previous years. For those at the coalface, stopping deals from falling out of bed will be the priority, with enough agility to take advantage of the smaller number of new deals that are still there to be done. Using technology to support these timescales and unlock complex caseloads will be key for law firms and property professionals in more challenging times.

“It should be noted that these challenges are not of the UK’s making, and there may be little that can be done in the UK to resolve them. But just as uncertainty is a market killer, consumer confidence will always be king. If fiscal policy can find clever ways to restore just a fraction of this lost confidence, the outlook could be much more resilient.”