Search Acumen comments on HMRC’s latest property transaction data

Andrew Lloyd , Managing Director at Search Acumen, says:

“Today’s property figures add a final sting to what many in the industry have been calling ‘Awful April’.

“By historic standards, this slowdown in deals is significant at a particularly delicate moment for the market. Today’s transaction data matters because it answers a simple question: are we pausing or stalling?

“So far, the signs point to hesitation. The housing market is absorbing an extraordinary number of shocks at once. Alongside ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weighing on confidence, buyers and sellers are adjusting to a dense mix of tax and policy headwinds: frozen inheritance tax thresholds, the end of the non‑dom regime, higher borrowing costs, rising transaction expenses and a stagnant Stamp Duty framework that keeps moving costs elevated.

“For landlords in particular, the pressure is acute. Higher maintenance and insurance costs, EPC compliance, restricted capital gains allowances and new digital tax obligations are landing just as the Renters’ Rights Act takes effect, materially reducing flexibility around possession. It’s likely that policy will push transaction volumes higher as more landlords choose to exit, but that added supply risks further downward pressure on flat values.

“Geopolitical shocks, most recently the Iran War, have rattled credit markets and reminded investors how quickly risk can reprice. We’ve been living through a risk test on risk-averse markets. In that context, today’s dip in residential and commercial deals suggests buyers are still sitting on their hands, unlike the normal spring bounce we’re used to. Monthly transactions running around the same level as February may not sound dramatic but is much slower than the Chancellor would like for a typical spring bounce, and growth depends on momentum. Deals that don’t happen don’t generate confidence, tax receipts, or activity.

“Interest rates remain the other great unknown for today. Some investors are using cheap debt to free capital for higher returns elsewhere, but if rates increase, many will choose to deleverage instead, pressing pause on new projects. Monetary policy may be battling inflation, but persistently high servicing costs are quietly sapping growth. Even with bright spots like the AI gold rush on datacentres, the risk of sleepwalking into stagnation is real.

“In housing, everyone is watching everyone else in a ‘who will blink first’ market. Sellers won’t move without an offer; buyers won’t commit without cheaper mortgages. Downsizers armed with cash are ready, but younger families are stuck behind stubbornly high rates and expiring low-cost fixes. You can’t help but feel like it’s a kettle that’s been left on a low boil for too long. As summer approaches, I think lenders are likely to blink first and ease rates to get the market moving again.

“What is certainly holding deals back is time. Transactions are dragging, clogged by overstretched legal processes. If the property market is to move at the pace the economy needs, technology and data sharing between government, banks, agents and lawyers must become the norm, not the exception. Faster deals mean freer markets.”